一种利用浮标站资料改进海浪模式有效波高预报的方法     

龚 《海洋预报》2020,37(1):50-54

基于浮标站海浪历史数据,利用回归分析方法建立了海浪数值模式有效波高预报产品的一元二次回归方程订正统计模型。通过2017年7月1日-2018年10月10日期间业务试运行结果发现:订正方程能有效改善有效波高数值预报产品的预报精度,且预报时效越短订正效果越显著。其中,第6~11 h预报时效内的订正前后平均绝对误差值减小0.17~0. 241 m,第6~18 h预报时效内订正前后均方根误差减小幅度为0.103~0. 28 m。这说明应用订正统计模型对海浪模式输出产品进行订正,也是改进海浪模式预报准确率的一种有效途径。  相似文献   

Subsidence in the Kathmandu Basin,before and after the 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha Earthquake,Nepal Revealed from Small Baseline Subset-DInSAR Analysis     

Suresh Krishnan P.V.  Jungkyo Jung 《地理信息系统科学与遥感》2018,55(4):604-621

Land subsidence in densely urbanized areas is a global problem that is primarily caused by excessive groundwater withdrawal. The Kathmandu Basin is one such area where subsidence due to groundwater depletion has been a major problem in recent years. Moreover, on 25 April 2015, this basin experienced large crustal movements caused by the Gorkha earthquake (Mw 7.8). Consequently, the effects of earthquake-induced deformation could affect the temporal and spatial nature of anthropogenic subsidence in the basin. However, this effect has not yet been fully studied. In this paper, we applied the SBAS-DInSAR technique to estimate the spatiotemporal displacement of land subsidence in the Kathmandu Basin before and after the Gorkha earthquake, using 16 ALOS-1 Phased Array L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (PALSAR) images during the pre-seismic period and 26 Sentinel-1 A/B SAR images during the pre- and post-seismic periods. The results showed that the mean subsidence rate in the central part of the basin was about ?8.2 cm/year before the earthquake. The spatial extents of the subsiding areas were well-correlated with the spatial distributions of the compressible clay layers in the basin. We infer from time-series InSAR analysis that subsidence in the Kathmandu basin could be associated with fluvio-lacustrine (clay) deposits and local hydrogeological conditions. However, after the mainshock, the subsidence rate significantly increased to ?15 and ?12 cm/year during early post-seismic (108 days) and post-seismic (2015–2016) period, respectively. Based on a spatial analysis of the subsidence rate map, the entire basin uplifted during the co-seismic period has started to subside and become stable during the early-post-seismic period. This is because of the elastic rebound of co-seismic deformation. However, interestingly, the localized areas show increased subsidence rates during both the early-post- and post-seismic periods. Therefore, we believe that the large co-seismic deformation experienced in this basin might induce the local subsidence to increase in rate, caused by oscillations of the water table level in the clay layer.  相似文献   

两方程湍流模型对内背风波数值模拟的影响          下载免费PDF全文

Xuhui Hu  Xuefeng Zhang  Lei Lin  Lianxin Zhang  Shifan Wang 《大气和海洋科学快报》2021,14(5):30-36

为了深入理解非静力近似下的波-湍相互作用问题,本研究在σ坐标的海洋环境研究和预报模型(MERF)中引入常用的Mellor-Yamada两方程湍混合参数化方案(MY2.5),评估垂向湍混合对小尺度背风波传播过程的影响.瞬时状态场的模拟结果表明,无论是否为非静力近似条件,上述湍参数化方案的引入都会减弱背风波传播的模拟效果.从时间平均场的试验结果来看,垂向湍混合过程会显著减小非静力近似和静力近似之间的差异.此外,能量收支分析的诊断结果表明,MY2.5方案会显著抑制陆坡地形下的背风波传播过程,进而将更多的潮能转化到不可逆的湍混合过程中.  相似文献   

Comparative analysis of significant wave height between a new Southern Ocean buoy and satellite altimeter          下载免费PDF全文

Jianjun Kang  Runyu Mao  Yiting Chang  Hongli Fu 《大气和海洋科学快报》2021,14(5):49-55

中国于2019年第35次南极考察中,首次在南大洋布放了锚系实时综合观测浮标(西风带海洋环境监测浮标,WEMB),为深入了解此海区的海洋环境变化提供了宝贵资料.国家海洋技术中心WEMB研究团队基于AVISO公开发布的多颗卫星高度计L3产品,通过数据配对,误差统计和最小二乘线性拟合等方法,对西风带海洋环境监测浮标的有效波高数据误差进行了分析与校正.校正后的浮标有效波高统计显示西风带常年处于大浪以上海况,观测期间内57％处于巨浪海况,并且伴随有高度相关的大风天气.  相似文献   

协调大集合模拟下全球海表面温度对北极对流层早冬增暖的影响          下载免费PDF全文

Lutao Wang  Yongqi Gao  Dong Guo  Tao Wang  Ying Zhang  Wei Hua 《大气和海洋科学快报》2021,14(1):57-62

本文使用六个不同的最新大气模式进行了协调数值集合实验,评估和量化了全球海表面温度(SST)对1982-2014年冬季早期北极变暖的影响.本研究设计了两组实验:在第一组(EXP1)中,将OISSTv2逐日变化的海冰密集度和SST数据作为下边界强迫场;在第二组(EXP2)中,将逐日变化的SST数据替换为逐日气候态.结果表明:(1)EXP1的多模式集合总体平均值显示0.4℃/10年的近地表(约850 hPa)升温趋势,为再分析数据结果中升温趋势的80％.(2)在这六个模式中,模拟的变暖趋势均很强,幅度为0.36-0.50℃/10年.(3)全球海表温度可以解释北极对流层中低层EXP1的大部分模拟的变暖趋势,占再分析数据结果的58％.(4)再分析数据结果中,北极上空的对流层上层变暖(约200 hPa)不是由强迫信号而可能是由自然气候变率引起的.本文还探索了影响北极初冬变暖的可能源区,并讨论了该研究的局限性.  相似文献   

不同类型冷却屋顶方案对城市群热环境的缓解效果     

张弥  马红云  林卉娇  李海俊  王莹 《气候变化研究进展》2021,17(1):45-57

利用耦合单层城市冠层模型的中尺度数值模式WRF/UCM,选取8组不同反照率和绿化比例的屋顶冷却方案进行敏感性试验,模拟研究不同冷却屋顶方案对长三角城市群2013年夏季城市热环境的影响,并分析其影响机制。结果表明：不同冷却屋顶方案对城市群热环境的缓解效果与屋顶参数之间呈很强的线性关系。高温热浪天气下,HR4（反照率为1.0）和GR4（屋顶绿化率为100%）方案的制冷度日数分别降低了14.7%和10.9%,节约的能源比普通夏日更多。同时,高温热浪天气会增强热岛强度,高反照率屋顶方案在白天对热岛起到更有效的缓解,热浪天气下日平均热岛强度最大可降低1.36℃。相同方案下,在高温热浪天气下的缓解效果均胜于普通夏日,平均而言,高反照率屋顶和屋顶绿化的降温效果分别增大38.5%和34.9%,增湿效果分别增大29.5%和21.9%,这主要是由于在高温热浪天气下,高反照率屋顶方案能够减少更多的净辐射通量,屋顶绿化方案能够释放更多的潜热通量。此外,城市格点密集区域的降温效果优于分散的城市区域,处于城市群中的常州区域较单独的杭州区域的降温幅度平均高32%。  相似文献   

1980—2000年北极平流层冬季十年际变化形势的逐月演变          下载免费PDF全文

吴国华  刘仁强  黎颖 《大气科学学报》2021,44(4):585-591

采用1980—2000年的ERA-Interim再分析资料,计算北半球冬季各月(12月、1月、2月)行星波的Eliassen-Palm(EP)通量及其散度,并按冬季不同月份分析平流层整层温度和纬向风场的十年际变化特征与行星波活动变化的关系。结果表明,温度的十年际变化在高纬度中下平流层12月呈明显增温趋势,1月转为较弱的冷却趋势,2月为明显的冷却趋势。纬向风在中高纬平流层12月呈明显的减速变化,1月减速区与加速区相间分布但强度均较弱,而2月为明显的加速趋势。12月行星波沿低纬度波导向热带对流层顶的传播减弱,沿极地波导向平流层整层的传播明显加强;1月沿两支波导的传播趋势未变但均较弱;而2月行星波沿低纬度波导的传播转为加强趋势,沿极地波导的传播转为减弱趋势。相应地,EP通量散度场的十年际变化形势沿两支波导在12月与2月相反,1月为过渡阶段。因此,北极平流层温度、纬向风、EP通量及其散度场的十年际变化在冬季内呈现一个从北半球环状模(Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode, NAM)的负极趋势向正极趋势逐月演变的过程。  相似文献   

祁连山大通河河流阶地形成时代及地质意义          下载免费PDF全文

于航  步凡  胡道功  张绪教  杨金中 《中国地质调查》2018,5(3):43-48

祁连山是研究青藏高原隆升与构造变形的关键部位,其中大通河河流阶地是祁连山地区早更新世以来构造隆升和气候变化的载体,厘定大通河河流阶地的形成时代及地质意义对于分析祁连山地区的区域构造和气候环境改变具有重要意义。通过ESR测年技术,并对大通河流域江仓区域的剖面样品实测,获取岩层形成时代数据,分别为(42±4) ka B.P.、(71±5) ka B.P.、(121±12) ka B.P.、(210±20) ka B.P.和(602±60) ka B.P.。根据测年结果,确认剖面为河流相沉积环境,形成时代对应中晚更新世酒泉砾岩和戈壁砾岩时期,表明大通河河流阶地在542~662 ka B.P.之前就已经形成,推测其可能是受到中新世白杨河组之后的盆山运动或早更新世祁连山的褶皱变形影响而形成的。利用测年数据计算抬升速率,从中更新世晚期到晚更新世中期,抬升速率加快,反映了大通河流域的构造运动和气候变化加强,祁连山江仓地区在此期间快速隆升,为青藏高原东北缘以面积和体积扩张的观点提供了新的依据。  相似文献   

Main technical innovations of Songke Well No.2 Drilling Project     

《China Geology》2018,1(2):187-201

Songke Well No.2, one of the main part of the scientific drilling project in Songliao Basin, which was drilled 7018 m and acquired the part of cores continuously from the Low Cretaceous to the Carboniferous and the Permian from the 2843 m deep, can be considered as the deepest continental drilling project in Asia. Aiming at the features of longer well sections, larger diameters and multiple spud-ins for coring of Songke Well No.2, this project broke through the “coring in small diameter and reaming in large diameter” spud-in drilling-completion procedures which are always used in large-diameter-well coring for continental scientific drilling projects in domestic and overseas and the drilling method of short-single-cylinder roundtrip footage. At the same time, “coring in the same diameter and completing drilling at one single diameter” was achieved at all φ311 mm and φ216 mm coring sections of more than one thousand meters long, high-efficient operation with “drilling long footage with drill tools combined in multi-cylinders” was achieved at deep coring section. Four world drilling records were created which include more than a thousand meters continuous coring at φ311 mm, and the footage per roundtrip footage at φ311 mm, φ216 mm and φ152 mm is all more than 30 m, all of these breakthroughs reduced at least 300 days for this project; moreover, considering the characteristics of formations that the geothermal gradient is high in the drilled sections and the inside-well temperature is over 240°C after drilling completion, a formate-polymer water-based mud system was developed by compounding attapulgite and sodium bentonite and by adding independently developed high-temperature stabilizer, which can provide critical technical support for successful well completion at 7018 m in the super-high-temperature environment It is the first time that the water-based mud is operated at the working temperature higher than 240°C in China; Besides, considering the high-quality requirement on cores imposed by the project, the method “mechanical cored is charge” to discharge core nondestructively on the ground was worked out, and more than 4000 m scatheless cores were discharged out of the drill pipes while maintaining original stratum structures.  相似文献   

一次极端寒潮天气过程等熵位涡分析     

谢瑞青  刘宇迪  朱金双  孟他 《气象科技》2019,47(2):312-321

利用2016年1月1日至31日的FNL资料,对一次极端寒潮天气过程进行了等熵位涡分析。结果表明:高位涡主体由极涡分裂而来,前面低位涡区的阻挡与后侧低位涡大气的北上加强了位涡的经向交换,高位涡空气不断由极地向南输送,使得高位涡主体不断加强维持。高位涡在由北向南移动的同时,也由对流层顶向下输送。此次寒潮过程主要有3股冷空气由上而下发展,位置均在高空急流轴的北侧,最南端的一股下沉气流最旺盛,这是其与高空急流相互作用的结果。强盛的冷空气下沉使得寒潮影响范围触及我国华南地区。随着高位涡的向南向下传输,一方面引起对流层中高层低涡系统迅速发展,当它移到中国东部地区时,东亚大槽迅速加深,使槽后强冷空气迅速向南爆发;另一方面,在高位涡输送的过程中,其后侧有强烈的下沉运动,使得地面冷高压快速发展,导致强寒潮天气的爆发。  相似文献